Analysis: Waiting for housing to drive the U.S. economy

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. housing market is on the mend, but the so-called “missing piston” of the world’s biggest economy doesn’t have enough power to get the broader recovery firing on all cylinders any time soon.

Construction and related activity will help rather than hinder U.S. economic growth this year for the first time since 2005. That was before the housing bust helped push the United States into recession, triggering the global financial crisis.

Higher sales, prices and building, albeit modest so far, are a welcome boost as other drivers of the economy falter.

Nonetheless, housing still accounts for only a small part of gross domestic product compared with the boom years.

The housing sector “would have to be on steroids to significantly boost GDP growth,” Paul Dales, an economist with Capital Economics, wrote in a recent research note.

Neither presidential candidate has signaled any new plans to help housing, although the Federal Reserve, aware of the important role of the sector in underpinning the economy, is focusing its latest stimulus efforts in mortgage bonds.

Typically, housing leads the U.S. economy out of recession. But the vast equity losses have stymied the market this time.

Housing’s most direct impact on growth is via construction, remodeling and associated services, known as residential investment. Its contribution to GDP has shrunk from a historical average of about 5 percent, and over 6 percent in 2005, to 2.5 percent in the third quarter of this year.

Economists expect residential investment will add two- to three-tenths of a percentage point to GDP in 2013, helping the economy maintain this year’s pace of growth.

Americans are likely to spend more on home renovations – probably $ 134.2 billion in the 12 months to June 2013, up from $ 115.3 billion at the end of September this year, according to Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.

That would still be 8 percent off the peak in mid 2007 when borrowing against home values was still soaring.

Now, homeowners remain wary of taking on debt. Most prefer to save for renovations rather than borrow, said Adi Tatarko chief executive of Houzz, a home remodeling online platform.

Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics says housing-related jobs have grown by an average of 11,000 a month this year. That contrasts with an average monthly decline of 1,000 in 2011 and they should speed up to 30,000 a month by early 2013 as new home construction picks up, he estimates.

Superstorm Sandy, which hammered the U.S. Northeast last week, could put more people to work in construction.

Analysts estimate the U.S. economy needs to create roughly 150,000 jobs a month just to hold the unemployment rate steady.

‘EVERY LITTLE BIT HELPS’

The influence of housing reaches further than just construction jobs; it can be a big jolt for consumer spending, which makes up two-thirds of the economy.

Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital, said real estate wealth should begin to boost consumer spending again next year. That would mark an important turning point for households’ finances, badly damaged by the housing market collapse and the drop in stock prices during the financial crisis.

“As the consumer goes, so will the broader economy,” Gapen said.

The swath of homeowners who owe more on their mortgage than the value of their home is a big factor that has held back the housing recovery. Many “underwater” Americans have been unable to sell their home and buy something more expensive. Such upward mobility in housing has traditionally fueled the market.

More than 20 percent of U.S. mortgages were underwater at the end of June, amounting to 10.8 million homes. Of those, 1.8 million borrowers would recover if prices rose 5 percent, according to data analysis firm CoreLogic .

Price gains like that may not be such a tall order. Economists expect prices to have risen 1.7 percent this year and pick up a further 3.1 percent next year, according to a Reuters poll.

Rising home prices helped 1.3 million homeowners get out from under water in the first half of this year, CoreLogic says.

Those are more homeowners who could potentially refinance their mortgages, putting more spending money in their pockets.

A number of factors suggest the recovery will be slow and modest, like that of the broader economy. These factors include a backlog of pending foreclosures, the large amount of distressed homes up for sale, often at low prices, and the difficulty in getting a mortgage.

In the meantime, the Fed will buy $ 40 billion in mortgage-related debt each month as it tries to bolster the housing sector which Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has called the “missing piston” of the U.S. economic recovery.

“Every little bit helps,” Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James, said of housing.

“People always ask, ‘What’s going to drive the recovery?’ It’s never usually one particular thing, but a lot of little things getting better at the same time.”

(Editing by William Schomberg and David Gregorio)

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Nexus 7 Destroys iPad Mini in Drop Test [VIDEO]

The iPad mini hit stores Friday, and the folks at SquareTrade are back with a video of what the tablet does when it hits somewhere else: the pavement.

[More from Mashable: iPad Mini Launch in NYC Gets Late Start [VIDEO]]

The group dropped an iPad mini, Nexus 7, and iPad 3 onto concrete and into water to see how they survive.

Each tablet was dropped from the SquareTrade “drop bot” to ensure that each was dropped the same way.

[More from Mashable: iPad Mini and iPad 4 Teardowns Show They’re Hard to Fix]

When dropped on its corner, the iPad mini survived with minimal damage to just the corner where it came in contact with the pavement. The Nexus 7 screen cracked on the edge of the screen, and the iPad 3 took a serious beating, cracking in a number of places on the screen.

When dropped directly on the screen, the iPad mini took a pretty hard beating, cracking across the screen in a number of places, so much so that the screen would definitely need to be replaced before you could continue to use the tablet, the same for the iPad 3. The Nexus 7 survived the fall, however, with just a few bumps and bruises.

All that’s well and good, but what happens when you drop your tablet in water? The iPad mini appeared to survive a 10-second dunk with no problem. The iPad 3 survived the dunk, but had a few malfunctions, and the Nexus 7 reset itself and appeared unresponsive after getting wet.

Check out the video above to see the test for yourself. Let us know what you think of the results in the comments.

Apple iPad Mini Hands-on

Click here to view this gallery.

This story originally published on Mashable here.

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“Fringe” Two-Hour Finale Set for January

LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) – “Fringe” might be on its way out, but it’s leaving with a bang.

The series, co-created by J.J. Abrams, will end its five-season run with a two-hour finale on January 18 starting at 8 p.m., Fox said Friday. The finale, which will also mark the series’ 100th episode, will bring the series to “a climactic conclusion,” the network said.

“It has been an absolute honor to have been a part of the weird and wonderful world of ‘Fringe,’ Abrams said in a statement. “I will always owe the cast and crew for pouring their hearts and souls into every dimension of this series. Creating the show with Bob Orci and Alex Kurtzman was a joy, but watching it evolve over the years into such an imaginative, insane and heartbreaking ride is nothing less than a thrill.”

The supernatural series, which stars Joshua Jackson, was a fan favorite, but has suffered in the ratings, and was renewed for a fifth and final season of 13 episodes in April.

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Factbox: Obama, Romney solutions to stimulating the economy

(Reuters) – The health of the U.S. economy has been central to the campaign for the White House, with both President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney seeking to convince voters they have a plan to usher in faster growth and job creation.

The economy has struggled to break above a 2 percent annual growth pace since the 2007-09 recession and unemployment remains uncomfortably high at 7.9 percent. About 23 million Americans are either unemployed, working only part-time although wanting full-time work, or want a job but have given up the search.

Here are Obama’s and Romney‘s key plans for the economy:

JOBS

Obama has said his job plan would strengthen American manufacturing, grow small businesses, improve the quality of education and make the country less dependent on foreign oil.

He envisions 1 million new manufacturing jobs by 2016 and more than 600,000 jobs in the natural gas sector, as well as the recruitment of 100,000 math and science teachers.

Repairing and replacing old roads, bridges, runways and schools are part of his plan to put Americans back to work. Half of the money saved from ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan would be used to fund infrastructure projects.

Romney has promised 12 million jobs in his first term, or about 250,000 jobs a month. Economists say the economy would likely generate that amount of jobs anyway.

His plan focuses on tax reform, pushing the economy toward energy independence, cutting regulations and boosting trade, especially by reducing barriers to trade with China.

Romney says Obama has not been aggressive enough in challenging unfair Chinese trade practices and that he would use both the threat of U.S. sanctions and coordinated action with allies to force China to abide by global trade rules.

HOUSING

Even though the housing crisis is at the heart of the economy’s woes, Obama and Romney did not spell out detailed plans for how they would address it.

Obama has promoted efforts to help troubled borrowers refinance and win record low interest rates, but his initiatives have fallen far short of their originally intended market.

He has battled the independent regulator of government-controlled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Edward DeMarco, trying to convince him to allow those mortgage finance firms to reduce principal for borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth. A quick resolution of the standoff is unlikely after the election.

Romney said at one point in the campaign that the housing market needed to hit bottom on its own without government intervention and he has offered few clues on his likely approach to foreclosures.

Democrats and Republicans agree the government’s heavy hand in the mortgage market should be reduced, but neither candidate has outlined a plan to do that.

THE FEDERAL RESERVE

Obama can be expected to offer Chairman Ben Bernanke a third term should he want it, but Fed watchers believe the former Princeton professor would prefer to depart after a grueling eight years in the job. Bernanke’s term as chairman expires on January 31, 2014.

Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen is viewed as a leading candidate to succeed Bernanke, and would be at least as dovish in terms of being prepared to keep monetary policy ultra-stimulative until the labor market has improved substantially.

Romney has said explicitly he would not reappoint Bernanke to a third term. Fed watchers expect whoever is chosen by Romney to be slightly more hawkish than Bernanke in terms of readiness to raise interest rates to keep inflation at bay.

Romney advisers Glenn Hubbard, Greg Mankiw and John Taylor are all viewed as top contenders to replace Bernanke. Hubbard and Mankiw may be a bit more hawkish than the current chairman, but not much, and neither would likely start an aggressive tightening campaign the moment he arrived. Taylor, however, has criticized the Bernanke Fed’s policy stance as too loose.

FISCAL POLICY

Obama has proposed cutting the government budget deficit by more than $ 4 trillion over the next decade by allowing the Bush tax cuts for upper-income Americans to expire and by eliminating loopholes. Half of the money saved from ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan would be used to reduce the deficit.

Romney wants to cut marginal tax rates for individuals by 20 percent and broaden the tax base by closing loopholes. He would keep all the Bush tax cuts in place in a plan he says would be revenue-neutral. Obama has charged the numbers do not add up.

Romney has also said he wants to reduce federal spending to 20 percent of U.S. GDP over four years from its current level of about 24 percent.

Both want to reduce the corporate tax rate, although Romney would reduce it further.

REGULATIONS

Obama is seen keeping on his current path as regulators work to put in place provisions of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law. It is not known whether Securities and Exchange Chairman Mary Schapiro will remain, but Obama would likely appoint a replacement who would not roll back investor protections to benefit corporations and financial firms.

Romney has pledged to repeal the entire law. But policy experts see that as a largely hollow campaign pledge because a wholesale repeal would be politically unpopular and Democrats are likely to retain control of the Senate.

Instead, they see Romney working with Congress to craft narrowly tailored bills targeting what Republicans see as the biggest problem spots: the Volcker rule’s ban on proprietary trading, the impact on end-user companies of derivatives reforms and the continued existence of too-big-to-fail financial firms. Romney would also like to curb the powers of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, another creature of the legislation.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani, Alister Bull, Doug Palmer, Margaret Chadbourn and Sarah N. Lynch; Editing by Tim Ahmann and Peter Cooney)

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As foreigners go, Afghan city is feeling abandoned

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan (AP) — By switching from studying business management to training as a nurse, 19-year-old Anita Taraky has placed a bet on the future of the southern Afghan city of Kandahar — that once foreign troops are gone, private-sector jobs will be fewer but nursing will always be in demand.

Besides, if the Taliban militants recapture the southern Afghan city that was their movement’s birthplace and from which they were expelled by U.S.-led forces 11 years ago, nursing will likely be one of the few professions left open to women.

Taraky is one of thousands of Kandaharis who are weighing their options with the approaching departure of the U.S. and its coalition partners. But while she has opted to stay, businessman Esmatullah Khan is leaving.

Khan, 29, made his living in property dealing and supplying services to the Western contingents operating in the city. Property prices are down, and business with foreigners is already shrinking, so he is pulling out, as are many others, he said.

Many are driven by a certainty that the Taliban will return, and that there will be reprisals.   

“From our baker to our electrician to our plumber, everyone was engaged with the foreign troops and so they are all targets for the Taliban. And unless the government is much stronger, when the foreign troops leave, that is the end,” Khan said.

The stakes are high. Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second city, is the southern counterweight to Kabul, the capital. Keeping Kandahar under central government control is critical to preventing the country from breaking apart into warring fiefdoms as it did in the 1990s.

“Kandahar is the gate of Afghanistan,” said Asan Noorzai, director of the provincial council. “If Kandahar is secure, the whole country is secure. If it is insecure, the whole country will soon be fighting.”

Even though Kandahar city has traffic jams and street hawkers to give it an atmosphere of normality, there are dozens of shuttered stores on the main commercial street, it’s almost too easy to find a parking space these days, and shopkeepers are feeling the pinch.

Dost Mohammad Nikzad said his profits from selling sweets have dropped by a half or more in the past year, to about $ 30 a day, and he has had to cut back on luxuries.

He said that every month he would buy a new shalwar kameez, the tunic favored by Afghan men; now he buys one every other month.

“I only go out to eat at a restaurant once a week. Before I would have gone multiple times a week,” Nikzad said, as he stood behind his counter, waiting for customers to show.

The measurements of violence levels contradict each other. On the one hand, many Kandaharis say things are better this year. On the other hand, the types of violence have changed and, to some minds, gotten worse.

“Before, we were mostly worried about bomb blasts. Now … we are afraid of worse things like assassinations and suicide attacks,” said Gul Mohammad Stanakzai, 34, a bank cashier.

Prying open the Taliban grip on Kandahar and its surrounding province has cost the lives of more than 400 international troops since 2001, and many more Afghans, including hundreds of public officials who have been assassinated by the Taliban.

Kandahar province remains the most violent in the country, averaging more than five “security incidents” a day, according to independent monitors. In Kandahar city, suicide attacks have more than doubled so far this year compared with the same period of 2011, according to U.N. figures.

“They are not fighting in the open the way they were before. Instead they are planting bombs and trying to get at us through the police and the army,” said Qadim Patyal, the deputy provincial governor.

The Taliban have said in official statements that they are focusing more on infiltrating Afghan and international forces to attack them. In the Kandahar governor’s office, armed Afghan soldiers are barred from meetings with American officials lest they turn on them, Patyal said.

And many point out that the “better security” is only relative. By all measures — attacks, bombings and civilian casualties — Kandahar is a much more violent city now than in 2008, before U.S. President Barack Obama ordered a troop surge.

There are no statistics on how many people have left the city of 500,000, but people are fleeing the south more than any other part of the country, according to U.N. figures. About 32 percent of the approximately 397,000 people who were recorded as in-country refugees were fleeing violence in the south, according to U.N. figures from the end of May.

The provincial government, which is supposed to fill the void left by the departing international forces, has suffered heavily from assassinations. It suffered a double blow in July last year with the killing of Ahmed Wali Karzai, the half-brother of President Hamid Karzai who was seen as the man who made things work in Kandahar, and Ghulam Haider Hamidi, the mayor of the city.

Now, Noorzai says, he can neither get the attention of ministers in Kabul nor trust city officials to do their jobs.

He remembers 2001, when he and others traveled to the capital flying the Afghan flag which had just been reinstated in place of that of the ousted Taliban. “People were throwing flowers and money on our car, they were so happy to have the Afghan flag flying again,” he said.

“When we got power, what did we give them in return? Poverty, corruption, abuse.”

Mohammad Omer, Kandahar’s current mayor, insists that if people are leaving the city, it is to return to villages they fled in previous years because now security has improved.

Zulmai Hafez disagrees. He has felt like a marked man since his father went to work for the government three years ago, and is too frightened to return to his home in the Panjwai district outside Kandahar city. He refused to have his picture taken or to have a reporter to his home, instead meeting at the city’s media center.

“It’s the Taliban who control the land, not the government,” Hafez said. He notes that the government administrator for his district sold off half his land, saying he would not be able to protect the entire farm from insurgents. Many believe the previous mayor was murdered because he went after powerful land barons.

Land reform is badly needed, and the mayor is angry about people who steal land, but he offers no solution. Kandahar only gets electricity about half the day. The mayor says it’s up to the Western allies to fix that. But the foreign aid is sharply down. Aid coming to Kandahar province through the U.S. Agency for International Development, the largest donor, has fallen to $ 63 million this year from $ 161 million in 2011, according to U.S. Embassy figures.

The mayor prefers to talk about investing in parks and planting trees. “I can’t resolve the electricity problem, but at least I can provide a place in the city for people to relax,” he said.

The only people thinking long-term appear to be the Taliban.

“The Americans are going and the Taliban need the people’s support, so they are trying to avoid attacks that result in civilian casualties,” said Noor Agha Mujahid, a member of the Taliban shadow government for Kandahar province, where he oversees operations in a rural district. “After 2014 … it will not take a month to take every place back.”

One of the biggest worries is the fate of women who have made strides in business and politics since the ouster of the Taliban.

“What will these women do?” asked Ehsanullah Ehsan, director of a center that trains more than 800 women a year in computers, English and business. It was at his center where Anita Taraky studied before switching to nursing.

“Even if the Taliban don’t come back, even if the international community just leaves, there will be fewer opportunities for women,” he said.

On the outskirts of the city stands one of the grandest projects of post-Taliban Kandahar — the gated community of Ayno Maina with tree-lined cement homes, wi-fi and rooftop satellite dishes.

Khan, the departing businessman, says he bought bought 10 lots for $ 66,000 in Ayno Maina and has yet to sell any of them despite slashing the price,

He recalled that when he first went to the project office it was packed with buyers. “Now it is full of empty houses. No one goes there,” Khan said.

Only about 15,000 of the 40,000 lots have been sold, and 2,400 homes built and occupied, according to Mahmood Karzai, one of the development’s main backers and a brother of President Karzai. He argues, however, that prices are down all over Afghanistan, and that Ayno Maina is still viable, provided his brother gets serious about reform that will attract investors.

“Afghanistan became a game,” he said over lunch at the Ayno Maina office. “The game is to make money and get the hell out of here. That goes for politicians. That goes for contractors.”

He shrugged off allegations that he skimmed money from Ayno Maina, saying the claims were started by competitors in Kabul who assume everyone who is building something in Afghanistan is also stealing money.

He said the money went where it was needed: to Western-style building standards and security.

In downtown Kandahar, a deserted park and Ferris wheel serve as another reminder of thwarted hopes. Built in the mid-2000s, the wheel has been idle for two years according to a guard, Abdullah Jan Samad. It isn’t broken, he said, it just needs electricity. A major U.S.-funded project to get reliable electricity to the city has floundered and generators that were supposed to provide a temporary solution only operate part-time because of fuel shortages.

“The government should be paying for maintenance for the Ferris wheel,” the guard said. “When you build something you should also make sure to maintain it.”

____

Associated Press Writer Mirwais Khan contributed to this report from Kandahar.

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IDC: Android on 75 pct of smartphones in 3Q

NEW YORK (AP) — Google‘s Android software for mobile devices was running on 75 percent of smartphones shipped in the third quarter, as the search company extended its lead over Apple, according to research firm IDC.

Apple‘s iOS system, used in iPhones, was second with a market share of 15 percent. Apple‘s new iPhone didn’t come out until late in the quarter, while Samsung Electronics Co. and other Android makers had major releases earlier.

A year ago, Android had just 58 percent to the iPhone’s 14 percent. Gains came largely at the expense of BlackBerry and Symbian phones, according to Thursday’s report from IDC.

“Android has been one of the primary growth engines of the smartphone market since it was launched in 2008,” said Ramon Llamas, a research manager for mobile phones at IDC. “In every year since then, Android has effectively outpaced the market and taken market share from the competition.”

Google makes its operating system software available to phone makers to use in their devices for free. In doing so, Google wins prime placement for its online services, including search and maps. Apple does not license its iOS system to others.

All other mobile operating systems were in the single digits: BlackBerry at 4.3 percent, Symbian at 2.3 percent and Windows at 2 percent. Research In Motion Ltd. plans to start selling devices running a new version of BlackBerry early next year, while Microsoft launched a new version of its Windows phone software this week. Symbian is mostly used by Nokia Corp., which is now focusing on Windows phones.

Companies making Android devices include Samsung, HTC Corp. and Motorola Mobility, which Google now owns.

Here are IDC’s top operating systems based on worldwide smartphone unit sales and market share in the third quarter of 2012.

— Android (Google Inc.) — 136 million units, 75 percent share (57.5 percent a year earlier)

— iOS (Apple Inc.’s iPhone) — 26.9 million units, 14.9 percent share (13.8 percent a year earlier)

— BlackBerry (Research in Motion Ltd.) — 7.7 million units, 4.3 percent share (9.5 percent a year earlier)

— Symbian (mostly used by Nokia Corp.) — 4.1 million units, 2.3 percent share (14.6 percent a year earlier)

— Windows (Microsoft Corp.) — 3.6 million units, 2 percent share (1.2 percent a year earlier)

— Linux — 2.8 million units, 1.5 percent share (3.3 percent a year earlier)

Source: IDC.

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NJ’s Springsteen, Bon Jovi join Sting in Sandy concert

NEW YORK (Reuters) – New Jersey natives Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi will join Sting and other top music stars on Friday for a special television benefit concert on NBC to aid victims of Sandy, the giant storm that killed scores and devastated large sections of the U.S. Northeast.

The Walt Disney Co meanwhile announced a $ 2 million donation for Hurricane Sandy relief efforts on Thursday, while Disney/ABC Television Group designated November 5 as a “Day of Giving” wherein viewers of network and syndicated programming would be encouraged to help.

Entertainment giant Viacom Inc. also announced a $ 1 million donation to the Mayor’s Fund NYC and local organizations.

Springsteen and Bon Jovi are both New Jersey natives who have often taken inspiration from their home state and used their star platform to highlight both its charms and challenges.

NBC said on Thursday that the commercial-free one-hour telecast, “Hurricane Sandy: Coming Together,” will air on Friday night and will include appearances by Christina Aguilera, Billy Joel, Jimmy Fallon and NBC News anchor Brian Williams.

The telethon, also to be shown on NBC Universal networks Bravo, CNBC, E!, G4, MSNBC, Style, Syfy and USA and live streamed on NBC.com, will benefit the American Red Cross, with proceeds going toward victims of Hurricane Sandy.

“Today” show anchor Matt Lauer, who announced the concert on air on Thursday, will host. Donors can also text the word REDCROSS to 90999 to make a $ 10 contribution.

On Tuesday, Springsteen tweeted a picture of the legendary Stony Pony club in New Jersey, saying “The Stone Pony stands proud despite hurricane Sandy!”

The club, at the ocean’s edge in Asbury Park, N.J., one of the shoreline communities lashed by the storm, has been associated with Springsteen since he performed there early in his career, and he continues to make appearances.

Bon Jovi cut short a promotional tour in the United Kingdom to rush back to his home state, where he established a charity restaurant several years ago.

“I really need to get back home having spoken to my wife and kids,” he told Britain’s Daily Mail before flying out of London. “I need to be with my people. Thankfully, my family are safe,” he said, adding “The devastation is off the charts.”

Large sections of the state, especially its famous coastline, were devastated by the monster storm this week.

Most of the other telethon performers are also from areas hard-hit by the storm, which killed at least 82 people in the United States and Canada and was the largest storm by area to hit the United States in decades. Millions remain without power, and emergency teams have struggled to reach the worst-hit areas.

Announcing ABC’s “Day of Giving” set for Monday, Anne Sweeney, president of Disney-ABC Television Group, said, “This coordinated effort between network and syndicated programming spanning news, daytime, primetime and late night will reach tens of millions of viewers with a specific call to action,” such as encouraging viewers to donate to the Red Cross.

(Reporting by Colleen Jenkins, and Chris Michaud; Editing by Alden Bentley and M.D. Golan)

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Older voters prefer Romney on healthcare, Medicare: Reuters/Ipsos poll

(Reuters) – As early voting proceeds across the country ahead of Tuesday’s presidential election, voters over 50 continue to be more likely than most to prefer Republican challenger Mitt Romney to President Barack Obama and to favor Romney‘s position on two issues that directly affect the elderly: healthcare and Medicare.

While Friday’s Reuters/Ipsos national tracking poll saw the candidates at an effective dead heat among all likely voters, older likely voters preferred Romney 51 percent to 43 percent during the week ending November 4.

Asked who has the better plan on healthcare, all likely voters support Obama over Romney by 42 percent to 39 percent, while older voters choose Romney, 43 percent to 39 percent. The responses on the candidates’ plans for Medicare show something similar: Obama leads among all likely voters, 42 percent to 35 percent, while Romney is ahead among older voters by 40 percent to 39 percent.

Nevertheless, when some respondents were asked to explain their preferences, they did not offer specifics about Medicare or Social Security and focused instead on the economy, which most consider the most important issue in this election, followed by unemployment. Healthcare issues rank third among older voters and the broader pool of all likely voters.

Kathy Laska, a 65-year-old retiree from Waukesha, Wisconsin, who cast an early vote for Romney, identified the economy as particularly pressing — more than healthcare. “I’m on Medicare right now. So I guess if the economy was better, we wouldn’t have to worry about healthcare,” she said.

She explained that the candidates’ healthcare differences were secondary to their economic differences.

“We need somebody who is a businessman, not a politician. Romney is a poor choice, but he is our only alternative,” she said.

For many, though, Obama’s 2010 healthcare law is a large part of their decision.

“I don’t like that Obamacare, for one thing,” Dale Reynolds, a 65-year-old retiree from Bloomington, Minnesota said. “And us old folks, we’re worried about Medicare and Social Security, and that kind of thing.”

The generation gap is especially pronounced among early voters: While Obama leads 53 percent to 42 percent among all early voters, he trails 51 percent to 44 percent with the older group. By Friday, 31 percent of older registered voters had voted, compared with 26 percent of all registered voters.

On the economy, older voters believe Romney has a better plan than Obama by an 11-point margin, while among the broader pool of likely voters Romney holds only a four-point lead.

“I’m definitely voting for Romney. I made that decision long ago. Obama said if he couldn’t get it done in three years, he didn’t deserve another one, and I believed him,” Reynolds said. “Romney’s a businessman. He knows what he’s talking about.”

While Obama leads Romney by six points on foreign policy among all likely voters, he trails by one among the older crowd.

Still, these voters are not confident Romney will win. In a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, most registered voters said they thought Obama would prevail. Laska agreed, and Reynolds was skeptical of Romney’s chances, particularly in his home state of Minnesota, which leans toward Democrats.

“These dummies here, they’re so liberal, it’s unreal.”

The Reuters/Ipsos database is now public and searchable here: http://www.tinyurl.com/reuterspoll

(Reporting by Gabriel Debenedetti)

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Obama’s Billion-Dollar Bet

From the moment the presidential race started taking shape, it was clear that along with being a contest between two candidates, the election would also be a contest between two different approaches to winning. Team Romney and its super PAC allies signaled that they would raise a ton of money to run a traditional campaign heavy on television advertising. Team Obama chose to build an elaborate ground operation—a big advantage in 2008—that would rely heavily on technology to register and turn out the vote.

While the two campaigns began with different outlooks on the race—Romney framing it as a referendum on the president, Obama as a choice between the two candidates—this divergence was also driven by necessity. Romney had to spend his time and money securing the GOP nomination and lacked the resources to develop the kind of turnout operation that could match his opponent’s. Obama knew he was saddled with a weak recovery and a more formidable foe than last time and would have to grind out an ugly victory unlikely to inspire as many voters. He’d have to find other ways of getting them to the polls.

Anyone who lives in a swing state—or near enough to one to catch the local network affiliates—can see for themselves what the Republicans’ approach has yielded. According to Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks television ads, combined ad spending this election could reach $ 3.3 billion (eclipsing the 2008 total of $ 2.5 billion).

But gauging the Democrats’ turnout operation is much trickier at this stage, and the strategy has not been well understood. A year ago, one popular motif among pundits was to point out that the Obama campaign had a high “burn rate”—that is, it was spending as much money as it was bringing in. This was generally taken as a sign of an inefficient, possibly troubled campaign. What it really reflected was the premium that Obama’s brain trust placed on building, as early as possible, what its members call a “snowflake” model of organizing: It planned to seed swing states with paid field staffers, each of whom would recruit five unpaid “neighborhood team leaders,” who in turn would recruit networks of 20 volunteers. (Each outward-extending network would resemble a snowflake.)

It would take time to organize these networks and then persuade voters. So the Obama finance team leaned heavily on big donors to contribute the maximum $ 35,800 by the end of 2011 and also commit a similar sum for 2012—money that was quickly spent on field organizers: hence the high burn rate.

The objective of this giant operation is to change the composition of the electorate in a way that favors Obama. But there’s no guarantee that it will. One reason for the sharp variance between Democratic and independent polls on the one hand, and Republican polls on the other, is that the two groups disagree about what the electorate ultimately will look like. If Obama’s ground game lives up to billing, the composition of voters should look something like it did in 2008. If Republicans are correct in assuming that it won’t, then the electorate will look less like 2008 and more like it did in 2010, when Republicans swept to victory.

There are a couple of complicating factors. First, Obama did not wind up being outspent to nearly the degree his campaign predicted. In fact, the most recent New York Times tally shows that Obama, the Democratic National Committee, and the main liberal super PAC raised $ 934 million, while Romney, the Republican National Committee, and the main conservative super PAC raised $ 882 million. But Obama’s vaunted operation has not yet changed the composition of the electorate in a way that makes victory seem assured. That’s because, in battleground states such as Virginia, Romney’s campaign is doing a better job of getting its supporters to vote early than John McCain’s did.

Whether Romney’s early vote strength will carry on through next Tuesday, or whether Obama’s operation will enable him to pull away, is the one great remaining unknown—and will probably decide the election.

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Gruesome video raises concerns about Syria rebels

BEIRUT (AP) — A video that appears to show a unit of Syrian rebels kicking terrified, captured soldiers and then executing them with machine guns raised concerns Friday about rebel brutality at a time when the United States is making its strongest push yet to forge an opposition movement it can work with.

U.N. officials and human rights groups believe President Bashar Assad‘s regime is responsible for the bulk of suspected war crimes in Syria‘s 19-month-old conflict, which began as a largely peaceful uprising but has transformed into a brutal civil war.

But investigators of human rights abuses say rebel atrocities are on the rise.

At this stage “there may not be anybody with entirely clean hands,” Suzanne Nossel, head of the rights group Amnesty International, told The Associated Press.

The U.S. has called for a major leadership shakeup of Syria’s political opposition during a crucial conference next week in Qatar. Washington and its allies have been reluctant to give stronger backing to the largely Turkey-based opposition, viewing it as ineffective, fractured and out of touch with fighters trying to topple Assad.

But the new video adds to growing concerns about those fighters and could complicate Washington’s efforts to decide which of the myriad of opposition groups to support. The video can be seen at http://bit.ly/YxDcWE .

“We condemn human rights violations by any party,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said, commenting on the video. “Anyone committing atrocities should be held to account.”

She said the Free Syrian Army has urged its fighters to adhere to a code of conduct it established in August, reflecting international rules of war.

The summary execution of the captured soldiers, purportedly shown in an amateur video, took place Thursday during a rebel assault on the strategic northern town of Saraqeb, said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an activist group.

It was unclear which rebel faction was involved, though the al-Qaida-inspired Jabhat al-Nusra was among those fighting in the area, the Observatory said.

The video, posted on YouTube, shows a crowd of gunmen in what appears to be a building under construction. They surround a group of captured men on the ground, some on their bellies as if ordered to lie down, others sprawled as if wounded. Some of the captives are in Syrian military uniforms.

“These are Assad’s dogs,” one of the gunmen is heard saying of those cowering on the ground.

The gunmen kick and beat some of the men. One gunman shouts, “Damn you!” The exact number of soldiers in the video is not clear, but there appear to be about 10 of them.

Moments later, gunfire erupts for about 35 seconds, screams are heard and the men on the floor are seen shaking and twitching. The spray of bullets kicks up dust from the ground.

The video’s title says it shows dead and captive soldiers at the Hmeisho checkpoint. The Observatory said 12 soldiers were killed Thursday at the checkpoint, one of three regime positions near Saraqeb attacked by the rebels in the area that day.

Amnesty International’s forensics analysts did not detect signs of forgery in the video, according to Nossel. The group has not yet been able to confirm the location, date and the identity of those shown in the footage, she said.

After their assault Thursday, rebels took full control of Saraqeb, a strategic position on the main highway linking Syria’s largest city, Aleppo — which rebels have been trying to capture for months — with the regime stronghold of Latakia on the Mediterranean coast.

On Friday, at least 143 people, including 48 government soldiers, were killed in gunbattles, regime shelling attacks on rebel-held areas and other violence, the Observatory said.

Of the more than 36,000 killed so far in Syria, about one-fourth are regime soldiers, according to the Observatory. The rest include civilians and rebel fighters, but the group does not offer a breakdown.

Daily casualties have been rising since early summer, when the regime began bombing densely populated areas from the air in an attempt to dislodge rebels and break a battlefield stalemate.

Karen Abu Zayd, a member of the U.N. panel documenting war crimes in Syria, said the regime is to blame for the bulk of the atrocities so far, but that rebel abuses are on the rise as the insurgents become better armed and as foreign fighters with radical agendas increasingly join their ranks.

“The balance is changing somewhat,” she said in a phone interview, blaming in part the influx of foreign fighters not restrained by social ties that bind Syrians.

Abu Zayd said the panel, though unable to enter Syria for now, has evidence of “at least dozens, but probably hundreds” of war crimes, based on some 1,100 interviews. The group has already compiled two lists of suspected perpetrators and units for future prosecution, she said.

Many rebel groups operate independently, even if they nominally fall under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army. In recent months, rebel groups have formed military councils to improve coordination, but the chaos of the war has allowed for considerable autonomy at the local level.

“The killing of unarmed soldiers shows how difficult it is to control the escalation of the conflict and establish a united armed opposition that abides by the same ground rules and norms in battle,” said Anthony Skinner, an analyst at Maplecroft, a British risk analysis company.

Rebel commanders and Syrian opposition leaders have promised human rights groups that they would try to prevent abuses. However, New York-based Human Rights Watch said in a report in September that statements by some opposition leaders indicate they tolerate or condone extrajudicial killings.

Free Syrian Army commanders contacted by the AP on Friday said they were either unaware or had no accurate details about the latest video.

Ausama Monajed, a member of the Syrian National Council, the main opposition group in exile, called for the gunmen shown in the video to be tracked down and brought to justice.

He added, however, that atrocities committed by rebels are relatively rare compared to what he said was a “massive genocide by the regime.”

Regime forces have launched indiscriminate attacks on residential neighborhoods with tank shells, mortar rounds and bombs dropped from warplanes, devastating large areas. In raids of rebel strongholds, Assad’s forces have carried out summary executions, rights groups say.

Rebels have also targeted civilians, setting off car bombs near mosques, restaurants and government offices. Human Rights Watch said in September it collected evidence of the summary executions of more than a dozen people by rebels.

In August, a video showed several bloodied prisoners being led into a noisy outdoor crowd in the northern city of Aleppo and placed against a wall before gunmen shot them to death. That video sparked international condemnation, including a rare rebuke from the Obama administration.

The latest video emerged on the eve of a crucial opposition conference that is to begin Sunday in Qatar’s capital of Doha. More than 400 delegates from the Syrian National Council and other opposition groups are expected to attend to choose a new leadership.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has called for a more unified and representative opposition, even suggesting the U.S. would handpick some of the candidates.

Clinton’s comments reflected growing U.S. impatience with the Syrian opposition, which, in turn, has accused Washington of not having charted a clear path to bringing down Assad.

The Syrian National Council plans to elect new leaders during the four-day conference but is cool to a U.S. proposal to set up a much broader group and a transitional government, said Monajed, the SNC member who runs a think tank in Britain.

U.S. officials have said Washington is pushing for a greater role for the Free Syrian Army and representation of local coordinating committees and mayors of liberated cities in Syria.

Nuland said that it would be easier for the international community to deliver humanitarian assistance to civilians and non-lethal aid to the rebels once a broader, unified opposition leadership is in place.

Such a body could also help persuade Assad backers Russia and China “that change is necessary” and that Syria’s opposition has a better plan for the country than the regime, she said.

___

Associated Press writer Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this report.

Middle East News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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